There's More Than One Way To Carve The Districts — The Various Plans Developed By EPIC/MRA

What do pollsters do in their spare time? Apparently, if you're Ed SARPOLUS, vice president of EPIC/MRA, a Lansing-based polling firm, you figure out various Congressional redistricting scenarios.

Sarpolus says he has come up with five different redistricting plans for Michigan's 15 Congressional districts. Although Michigan's population grew by nearly 7 percent over the past decade, it still lost one Congressional seat because Michigan's growth was slower than the nation as a whole which grew by 13.2 percent, or 32,712,033.

The five scenarios vary by political break down. One scenario would create nine Republican districts and six Democratic districts. Under another scenario there would be eight Democratic districts and seven Republican districts.

“The Republicans hold the pen,” Sarpolus reminded MIRS newsletter this week. “But they've said they're not going to be greedy. This should provide an interesting test as to whether they really mean that or not.”

The various Sarpolus-drawn districts will be released this coming week, with maps included. The maps are scheduled to appear on the MIRS website in conjunction with greater details on the various scenarios.

In addition to the 9-6 Republican scenario and the 8-7 Democratic scenario, Sarpolus says he has come up with two plans that would create eight GOP districts and six Democratic districts. Under the first of these plans, the remaining district would lean Democratic, under the second, the remaining district would lean Republican.

The fifth scenario would create eight Republican districts and seven Democratic districts.

“I was really quite surprised by how easy it was to do this,” Sarpolus said. “The plan that was adopted after the 1990 census involved 11 county splits. All five of these scenarios have the same amount of county splits, and that number of splits is significantly less than 11.”

Sarpolus said that in each of his scenarios, 5th District Congressman James BARCIA (D-Bay City) ends up the “odd-man-out.” He also said that all five of his scenarios include the creation of a safe Republican Congressional district for term-limited Secretary of State Candice MILLER. Sarpolus also said that Congressman David BONIOR (D-Mt. Clemens), “may not need to run for Governor after all.”

“Under all five plans I think Barcia would end up running for state Senate,” Sarpolus said. “These plans also exceed state standards in terms of compactness.”

The state must produce redrawn district lines as regular legislation by Nov. 1. Currently, the task is assigned to legislative subcommittees. Ultimately, the state's new redistricting plans must be approved by the Legislature and signed into law by the Governor. However, Republican control of the Legislature and the Executive branch does not give the GOP a free hand to create only the most favorable districts.

Any plan must strive to meet technical criteria including equal population size, districts that are compact in form, and districts that adhere to the so-called “Apol” Rule (named after former Michigan redistricting administrator, Bernard APOL, who first suggested this). This rule requires Michigan House and Senate Districts to follow existing political boundaries—e.g., county, municipal, and township boundaries—wherever possible.

Sarpolus maintains that published redistricting scenarios, such as his five Congressional district plans, help set redistricting standards for the Legislature.

“It helps set the standards in the sense that no one should now be able to try to argue that plans with 10 or 11 county splits will be necessary,” Sarpolus said. “These plans show that, this year, redistricting can take place without too many political boundaries being crossed.”

“Somebody will either have to match these plans, in terms of the small number of splits, or do better,” Sarpolus continued. “I have a county split in east Michigan, another in west Michigan and the rest are in southeast Michigan. I'll hold back on releasing the total number until next week.”

The fact that it's more than likely Republicans will emerge from the process with at least eight safe districts is significant. Democrats have held a majority of the state's Congressional delegation for decades - but that long reign is about to end.

“I'm quite sure that Democrats have held a majority of Michigan's Congressional seats, at least since the 1963 Constitutional convention,” Sarpolus said. “Although there will now be more Republican districts, Democratic Congressional candidates may still very well receive the most overall votes. The problem Democrats have is that they tend to be more clustered together. The party would do better if Democrats were more spread out.”

Demographic trends will strongly influence redistricting, including little or no population growth in major urban centers coupled with suburban and exurban growth in surrounding areas.

The heavily Democratic City of Detroit saw its population drop by 77,000 during the 1990s, a rate of decline less than one-half that experienced by the motor city during the 1980s. In total population, Detroit slipped below the 1,000,000 mark recording a total population of 951,270 in 2000. In 1990, the city's population was pegged at 1,027,974.

In terms of numerical population change, the census count put Oakland County at 1.19 million people, up 110,000 over the last decade. Macomb County saw the second largest population growth, up 70,749 for a total population of 788,149.

On a percentage basis, Livingston County experienced the highest overall increase, reporting a 35.7 percent jump.

Between 1990 and 2000, population in the state's cities and villages has decreased by 0.4 percent. Meanwhile, unincorporated areas have increased by 17.4 percent. Despite numerous annexations, the portion of the state's population in unincorprated areas has increased from 33 percent in 1970 to 45 percent in 2000.

Metropolitan counties have continued to grow more slowly than non-metropolitan counties. The 25 counties designated as "metropolitan" grew 6.1 percent from 1990 to 2000. Although this growth shows significant change from the slow growth or declines recorded in the 1970s and 1980s, it is still lower than the 10.7 percent growth recorded for Michigan's non-metropolitan counties.

Following on the trends of the past three decades, the counties comprising the northern Lower Peninsula have once again grown the fastest. The 27 counties in the region grew by 17.8 percent over the past 10 years. In the 1980s, the area grew by 8.4 percent. In the 1970s, the area grew by 29.4 percent.

The following are maps outlining the five various Congressional redistricting plans designed by Sarpolus.

Wayne County Under 9-6 Republican Plan:

Detroit Under 9-6 Republican Plan

Oakland County Under 9-6 Republican Plan

Macomb Under 9-6 Republican Plan

The Thumb Region Under 9-6 Republican Plan

Kent County Under 9-6 Republican Plan

Plan #2, 8 Republican Seats, 6 Democratic Seats, 1 Seat That Leans Republican

Plan #3, 8 Republican Seats, 6 Democratic Seats, 1 Seat That Leans Democratic

Plan #4 - 8 Republican, 7 Democratic Seats

Plan #5, 8 Democratic Seats, 7 Republican Seats